NY-23 a Bellweather?

Marc Ambinder seems to think that the events in New York's 23rd Congressional district might be a sign of things to come for Florida.

The analog of NY-23 that comes to mind is the Florida GOP Senate primary, and this shows the promise and the limits of analogies. Like NY-23, conservatives have been protesting the GOP establishment's decision to rally around not-so-conservative but ostensibly popular Gov. Charlie Crist at the expense of challenger Marco Rubio. Rubio, like Hoffman, has been winning grassroots straw polls. Rubio, like Hoffman, has run as a populist conservative. Crist has some inherent vulnerabilities that, thanks to Rubio and to an aggressive Florida press corps, are beginning to be exploited. Similarities end, though: Rubio is a professional politician. He's crisper on the hustings. He knows the issues of the state. He's a plausible governor, having been mentored by Jeb Bush, Crist's predecessor. There are no third-party dynamics here, just a bunch of conservative activists who don't want Charlie Crist to be their senator. Late word from Florida tonight: Crist's popularity has dropped. The tag of "Empty Chair Charlie" -- referring to what pollster Tom Eldon calls his "uneventful" three years in office as well as, flirtatiously, to Crist's reputed intellectual fogginess.

Still, Rubio might be the first beneficiary of the Hoffman era of Republican politics -- an era that is inhospitable to moderate Republicans and to Republicans selected by the establishment.

Marco Rubio and his tea-bagger allies would agree with this assessment.

This morning, the GOP establishment-backed Republican, Dede Scozzafava, suspended her campaign, citing fundraising problems. The demise of a stimulus package-supporting moderate Republican is sure to embolden conservative donors and key activist groups across the country. And Rubio is positioned to be the biggest beneficiary anywhere.

"America is a two party nation and instead of packing up and fleeing the GOP, we should launch a coup and take it back," Erick Erickson blogged on RedState today. "Consider NY-23 the first salvo in that coup, with the Florida Senate race right behind it."

If the tea-baggers propel Doug Hoffman to victory in a race for a Congressional seat representing a district in which he does not even live, they won't stop there. What more enticing target than a Republican so moderate that he not only endorsed President Obama's economic stimulus bill, but actually received some support from a prominent liberal blogger.

The one factor that nobody is talking about is the media. If the tea-bagger make Charlie Crist their new target, the media will be more than happy to accomodate. As we saw during the 2008 presidential campaign, there is nothing like a David vs. Goliath campaign to get the media's attention. Marco Rubio, the young attractive outsider, vs Charlie Crist, the establishment politician. The media won't be able to resist.

So the tea-baggers are going to do their part. The media are going to their part. It's up to loyal Democrats to do their part by re-registering as Republicans so we can vote in the closed GOP primary next summer. Remember, a victory for Rubio is a victory for Democrats.