GOP Defeats Conservatives

Last night was a much better night for the Republican Party than the tea-baggers. Republican Chris Christie defeated incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine in New Jersey by running as a moderate. In Virginia, Governor-elect Bob McDonnell couldn't be described as a moderate, but he certainly avoided discussing social issues. A Taxpayer Bill of Rights went down in defeat in Maine and another anti-tax, government spending initiative lost in Washington. But most devastating to the tea-baggers, Conservative Doug Hoffman lost to Democrat Bill Owens in New York's 23rd Congressional District. Tea-baggers should not be disheartened. After watching a bit of Hoffman's concession speech last night, I can understand why he lost. He is inarticulate. While voters might be angry about taxes and bailouts, Hoffman had to convince voters in a congression district in which he did not live to elect him over two qualified natives. If he can't string together a sentence without stumbling over his words, that task gets more difficult.

So what does this mean for our movement to nominate Marco Rubio? Nothing. By all accounts, the GOP Uncivil War is still on. This morning, a gleeful GOP Chairman Michael Steele dinged Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Alaska facebook blogger Sarah Palin for getting into a race in which they had no business meddling.

As any party chairman should, RNC Chairman Michael Steele took the opportunity this morning to crow about GOP victories in New Jersey and Virginia.

But he also seemed to deliver a bit of a rebuke to potential 2012 presidential aspirants in his party such as Sarah Palin, Tim Pawlenty, and Rick Santorum, all of whom immersed themselves in the NY-23 special House race with their endorsements and support for conservative Doug Hoffman who came up short last night.

"If you don't live in the district, you don't vote there, your opinion doesn't matter very much," Steele said while assessing the intra-party strife that resulted in a Democratic pick up of a seat held by Republicans since the Civil War.

So the tea-baggers are angry and the GOP establishment is digging in its heels. For us, that means that Florida conservatives are still gunning for Charlie Crist. Despite the GOP victories in Virginia and New Jersey, Marco Rubio is still a better Republican opponent. While GOP moderates had some victories, tea party candidates and intiatives went down in defeat. As much as Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin scream about socialism and high taxes, voters weren't rushing to embrace the tea party movement. People aren't freaking out about higher taxes. They don't want government to stop doing things. They are sick of politicians who aren't getting it right. That is the reason Jon Corzine lost in New Jersey. That is the reason that Mike Bloomberg nearly lost in New York City.

So sit back, relax, pop some popcorn, and enjoy the coming battle for the heart and soul of GOP. And don't forget to change your voter registration to Republican and vote for Marco Rubio!

Politico: GOP Uncivil War is Coming to Florida

With momentum from what should be a huge victory in a special election in New York's 23rd Congression district, the tea-baggers are expected to next set their sights on three Republican Senate candidates recruited by Republican Party--Rep. Mark Kirk of Illinois, Rep. Rob Simmons of Connecticut, and Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida. From By Charles Mahtesian and Alex Isenstadt at Politico.com:

These high-stakes primaries, pitting the activist wing of the party against the establishment wing, stand to have a profound impact on the 2010 election landscape since they will create significant problems for moderate candidates recruited by the national party precisely because they appear well-suited to win in places that are not easily — or even plausibly — won by conservative candidates.

The tensions between the two visions threaten to limit the party’s gains in an election year that is shaping up in its favor.

Party strategists worry that well-funded, well-organized challenges from the right could force Republicans to exhaust precious resources on messy primary fights — or force moderate candidates to adopt more strident positions early on that could haunt them during the final months of the campaign.

Joe Scarborough, former Republican congressman from Florida's 1st Congressional District and co-host of MSNBC's Morning Joe made an interesting point this morning. While the tea-baggers might be comprised of people who believe that the earth is 6000 years old and that freedom means lower taxes, but the right to control your body or marry the person you love, what is driving the movement and giving the GOP some support form moderates is the massive increase in spending. He argues that Democrats will have trouble competing against conservatives who are running on a purely economic platform. Screaming about abortion and gay rights won't go very far if your the GOP candidate isn't talking about it, in his view.

Perhaps this is true, but here in Florida, would you rather Kendrick Meek go up against a relatively popular Republican governor whose mose fervent supporters include pragmatic and moderate Republicans and indepents or would you rather Kendrick Meek face a candidate whose base of supporters traveled 900 miles to Washington, DC to protest taxes that haven't been raised and a health care plan that won't result in a government takeover while holding these lovely signs?

Set aside the logical argument for crossing party lines to vote for Marco Rubio in the GOP primary next summer. You should consider supporting Marco Rubio purely for the entertainment value! This is the kind of logic you want from your opponents:

"Young" Republicans in Florida

The Jacksonville Observer posted an editorial by a tea-bagger who was inspired by the "Marco Rubio Revolution." This line about her visit to a Young Republican event made me laugh out loud.

At a recent Young Republican event in Jacksonville a lady told me in the 53 years of her life she has never written a check to a candidate, and though she always goes to the polls on election day, she had never felt compelled to get involved until now. She said she didn’t remember where she first heard Marco speak, but she knew he was the “real deal.” Her family could not believe she had ventured downtown by herself that night to hear a candidate speak or that she tells everyone she meets about Marco Rubio.

I realize that 53 may be young in Florida, but I think it's a stretch to call this tea-bagger a Young Republican. Of course, in the new, pure conservative, evangelical, old, white, southern GOP, may 53 is the new 23?

NY-23 a Bellweather?

Marc Ambinder seems to think that the events in New York's 23rd Congressional district might be a sign of things to come for Florida.

The analog of NY-23 that comes to mind is the Florida GOP Senate primary, and this shows the promise and the limits of analogies. Like NY-23, conservatives have been protesting the GOP establishment's decision to rally around not-so-conservative but ostensibly popular Gov. Charlie Crist at the expense of challenger Marco Rubio. Rubio, like Hoffman, has been winning grassroots straw polls. Rubio, like Hoffman, has run as a populist conservative. Crist has some inherent vulnerabilities that, thanks to Rubio and to an aggressive Florida press corps, are beginning to be exploited. Similarities end, though: Rubio is a professional politician. He's crisper on the hustings. He knows the issues of the state. He's a plausible governor, having been mentored by Jeb Bush, Crist's predecessor. There are no third-party dynamics here, just a bunch of conservative activists who don't want Charlie Crist to be their senator. Late word from Florida tonight: Crist's popularity has dropped. The tag of "Empty Chair Charlie" -- referring to what pollster Tom Eldon calls his "uneventful" three years in office as well as, flirtatiously, to Crist's reputed intellectual fogginess.

Still, Rubio might be the first beneficiary of the Hoffman era of Republican politics -- an era that is inhospitable to moderate Republicans and to Republicans selected by the establishment.

Marco Rubio and his tea-bagger allies would agree with this assessment.

This morning, the GOP establishment-backed Republican, Dede Scozzafava, suspended her campaign, citing fundraising problems. The demise of a stimulus package-supporting moderate Republican is sure to embolden conservative donors and key activist groups across the country. And Rubio is positioned to be the biggest beneficiary anywhere.

"America is a two party nation and instead of packing up and fleeing the GOP, we should launch a coup and take it back," Erick Erickson blogged on RedState today. "Consider NY-23 the first salvo in that coup, with the Florida Senate race right behind it."

If the tea-baggers propel Doug Hoffman to victory in a race for a Congressional seat representing a district in which he does not even live, they won't stop there. What more enticing target than a Republican so moderate that he not only endorsed President Obama's economic stimulus bill, but actually received some support from a prominent liberal blogger.

The one factor that nobody is talking about is the media. If the tea-bagger make Charlie Crist their new target, the media will be more than happy to accomodate. As we saw during the 2008 presidential campaign, there is nothing like a David vs. Goliath campaign to get the media's attention. Marco Rubio, the young attractive outsider, vs Charlie Crist, the establishment politician. The media won't be able to resist.

So the tea-baggers are going to do their part. The media are going to their part. It's up to loyal Democrats to do their part by re-registering as Republicans so we can vote in the closed GOP primary next summer. Remember, a victory for Rubio is a victory for Democrats.

Why Support Marco Rubio?

There are two good reasons for Democrats to support Marco Rubio in the 2010 Republican Senate primary. First, Marco Rubio is a weaker general election candidate than Charlie Crist. Gov. Crist has been relatively popular. A St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Bay News 9 poll released this weekend found that 42% of Florida voters found that he was doing an excellent job, with another 39% rating his performance as fair. While that is down from this spring, when he enjoyed support from more than 60% of Florida Democrats and independents, at least some of that can be attributed to an erosion of support among Republicans.

Despite the apparent cracks in Crist's campaign, the polls show him handily defeating Kendrick Meek. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that the presumptive Democratic candidate, Rep. Kendrick Meek would be defeated handily by Gov. Crist. In a matchup against the teabagger candidate, Marco Rubio, Meek fared much better.

Gov. Charlie Crist's lead over former state house speaker Marco Rubio in the 2010 Republican U.S. Senate primary has been cut in half from 55 - 26 percent to 50 - 35 percent, but the Governor tops the leading Democrat, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek, 51 - 31 percent among all voters, while Rubio trails Meek 36 - 33 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

If the prospect of an easier general election campaign is not enough to get you to cross party lines and vote in the GOP primary, consider the possibility of a shrinking Republican Party. As David Plouffe, President Obama's presidential campaign manager, explained on Meet The Press this morning, the Sarah Palin/Glenn Beck-led purist tea-bagger movement has the potential to cripple the Republican Party for the foreseeable future.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

If Republicans continue to purge moderates such as Charlie Crist, the party will be unable to put up candidates who could compete for votes from independents and conservative Democrats and moderate and liberal Republicans will continue leave the party in droves. According to a recent Washington Post-ABC News poll, the number of Americans who identify as Republicans has fallen to an all-time low.

Only 20 percent of adults identify themselves as Republicans, little changed in recent months, but still the lowest single number in Post-ABC polls since 1983. Political independents continue to make up the largest group, at 42 percent of respondents; 33 percent call themselves Democrats.

There is always the possibility that Marco Rubio could defeat Kendrick Meek. Right-wing polling outfit Rasmussen recently released a poll showing that Kendrick Meek would lose to either Republican candidate.

A new Rasmussen Reports survey of Florida voters shows Governor Charlie Crist leading Representative Kendrick Meek by a 46% to 34% margin. In August, Crist led by 19 and in June he was ahead by 21.

Former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio leads Meek by a similar margin, 46% to 31%. In August, Rubio led by 13 percentage points.

Even Democratic Party leaders have acknowledged this possibility. MSNBC reported that there has been chatter in DC about finding an alternative to the Miami Democrat as doubts about Charlie Crist's invincibility have risen.

Still, while supporting Marco Rubio doesn't guarantee Democrats another Senate seat, a general election victory by Rubio does provide some advantages that a Charlie Crist win would not. First, a victory for a right-wing candidate will only strengthen the tea-bagger wing of the GOP. If the tea-baggers are able to point to a few victories in the 2010 midterms, it will be hard to ignore the voices of those who argue that the GOP should nominate a pure conservative for president in 2012. The sole voice of reason for Republican moderates will continue to be Meghan McCain.


Second, keeping Charlie Crist out of the Senate denies the Senate moderates another ally. Progressives have been very frustrated with the White House for shaping legislation to appeal to moderate Republicans such as Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. Charlie Crist, who joined President Obama at an event in Florida to promote the stimulus this spring, would provide the White House with another opportunity to water-down legislation in the name of bipartisanship.


I submit that supporting Marco Rubio in the GOP Senate primary is a win-win proposition for Florida Democrats. The primary will not be held until August 31, 2010, but in order to vote, you must change your voter registration to Republican at least 29 days before the primary.

Support Democrats! Vote Rubio!